Iran - Deceptions and Strategy

Despite evidence the Iranians have been hiding their nuclear pursuits and lying about it, strategy to counter the threat posed to the gulf region is slow in coming. The recent missile tests are illustrative of Iranian deception. The missiles test fired during the recent maneuvers reached a range of 3000 kilometers as opposed to the announced range of the missile. A shorter range was announced to hide the fact that it could reach several European countries with a nuclear warhead. Their new missile is a two-stage solid fuel missile which increases the range and reliability of the weapon. The missile is produced by the Industrial Group of Aerospace in the Khojair region east of Tehma. Other solid fuel missiles are produced by the Bakeri Industrial Group. Revolutionary Guards Corps Air Force commander, Pasdar Salami falsely claimed that these missiles are no threat to Iran’s neighbors. Then he said,
“the message of this maneuver for those greedy countries that intend to evoke horror is that we are able to immediately, decisively and strongly react and answer back the evil intentions of the enemy.”

There should be no doubt that Iran continues to work towards full nuclear delivery capability. It should also be apparent that Iran continues to lie about the extent of its nuclear and associated programs. Should Iran obtain first strike capability, all of the Middle East and much of Southern and Central Europe will be at risk. Stratfor has reported on war games to be held in Israel next week. This will 'make waves' throughout the entire gulf region.
American warships and transport aircraft have been arriving in Israel ahead of a major ballistic missile defense exercise slated for the week of Oct. 12. The exercise will not only be noteworthy for its size and complexity, but for the integration and interoperability it hopes to achieve. In addition, it comes amidst a mounting crisis with Iran and will be watched closely by all sides. Military exercises like Juniper Cobra do not take place in a vacuum. In 2007, Juniper Cobra was held in March and at that point, the 2009 exercises were also scheduled for spring. It seems that the schedule changed and regardless of the reason, the timing of these exercises will ratchet up already sky-high tensions between the West and Iran.
They will be testing and implementing new Ballistic Missile Defenses.

Strategy may take shape following these maneuvers to ensure oil supply. The Strait of Hormuz, facilitates movement of 90 percent of the Persian Gulf’s oil exports (40 percent of the global seaborne oil trade) as well as all of the gulf’s liquefied natural gas exports. At a time when the world economies are reeling from the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, war there presents a very serious threat. Despite disincentives for Iran to try and close the strait, it can not be ruled out. With so much at stake risks are very high.

Factor in the possibility Iran has 2 more nuclear scientists missing and you have a cauldron about to boil over...


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